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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-23T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17810/-1
CME Note: CME SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and SW in COR2A. Source: 2.8 class flare in AR 2871 with location S22E28 and eruption seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 extending from AR 2871 NE and SW, with dimming and post-eruptive archades. The CME arrival at L1 is denoted by the increase in magnetic field (B total increase to above 10nT, magnetic field rotation (Bz stayed mostly positive, a clear flux rope is observed) and decrease in ion temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T23:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T23:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

A 2-CME simulation. 
The simulation also includes a faster CME (2021-09-23T16:53:00-CME-001) that followed 2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001 in a few hours/
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17816/1

Model Inputs: 
2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=300.0, HalfAngle=48.0, Time21.5=2021-09-23T16:44Z
2021-09-23T16:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=428.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2021-09-23T23:28Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Minor impact at Earth with Shock Arrival Time = 2021-05-26T23:30Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=2

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-26T10:18Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-25T16:21Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-27T01:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 54.38 hour(s)
Difference: -0.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-09-24T16:37Z

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